 Jeff Thredgold is the president of Thredgold Economic Associates, a professional speaking and economic consulting company. Jeff is the only economist in the world to have received the CSP designation - the highest earned designation in professional speaking. To read more about Jeff please visit: Jeff Thredgold, CSP
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Social Security
A number of media stories have appeared in recent weeks discussing the fact that Social Security payments now exceed the inflow of funds into the system... and years sooner than expected. Note: one more impact of the Great Recession, as millions of lost jobs reduced Social Security tax inflows. . . . more
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Summertime View
The American economy has now registered a reasonable growth pace for three straight quarters, following four straight quarters of economic decline. Constraining a more impressive economic growth rate are sluggish residential and commercial real estate valuations and soft demand, historically high unemployment, and consumer anxiety about ever-expanding government and mind-boggling budget deficits. . . . more
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Domestic ABCs
This week’s Tea Leaf is our semi-annual alphabetic view of the U.S. economy. Global ABCs will soon follow... . . . more
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Counter Balance
Three major developments of the past few weeks have “built in” offsets that will ultimately reduce their individual, and collective, impact upon the U.S., European, and global economies. Such offsets or stabilizers are critical to (hopefully) counteracting economic volatility in coming months and years. . . . more
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Baby Steps
...better and better... Check out the pattern underway in the chart below. American monthly job performance has gone from the worst since the Great Depression to stronger and stronger data in a classic pattern. . . . more
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"G"
Last week’s Tea Leaf was entitled Global, with an update on what is happening in the growing global economy. This week’s issue provides an update of other significant "G" words featured in the news . . . more
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Cap & Trade
As the Obama era began, the Administration’s objective of utilizing “cap & trade” as the desired policy to address alleged climate change and to reduce our dependence upon foreign sources of oil was front and center... . . . more
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Happy Talk
The “dismal science” of economics typically focuses on “bad” news. We clearly face many significant challenges…no argument here. However, there are also many favorable developments taking place within the U.S. economy. This is our semi-annual update of “Happy Talk.” This Tea Leaf focuses ONLY on the “good” news . . . more
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Noise & Transition
The February U.S. employment data was subject to wide interpretation in regard to how the labor market is performing, with nasty East Coast weather during much of February greatly impacting the data. Economists refer to such data influence as “noise.” Still, the overall gist of the data was positive, with a transition to announced employment gains in coming months both expected and exceedingly welcome . . . more
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This Way to the Exit
The Federal Reserve’s modest increase in its largely symbolic discount rate on February 18 was perhaps the most visible sign yet that its “exit strategy” is well underway. More moves to the exit will be undertaken in coming weeks and months, including the previously announced cessation in late March of its mammoth purchase of mortgage-backed securities . . . more
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A Shot Across the Bow
Financial developments within Greece of recent weeks should be considered “a shot across the bow” for similar smaller nations such as Portugal, Spain, and Ireland. Such a warning shot regarding high debt levels should also be taken seriously by larger nations, including the United Kingdom and the United States. . . . more
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Solid Growth
The American economy (GDP) grew at a 5.7% real (after inflation) annualized growth rate during 2009’s final quarter, the strongest growth pace since the third quarter of 2003. Most forecasts were closer to a 4.7% real annual pace. GDP, or gross domestic product, is the most broad-based measure of goods produced and services provided within U.S. borders. . . . more
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Disincentives
Following the Democratic election (and health care bill) disaster in Massachusetts last week, the President noted that voters, in general, “don’t get it.” He stated that he needs to be clearer as to what he and the Democratic Congress are trying to do. . . . more
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Message in a Ballot
Anger in America…repudiation… sending a message…wrong direction All of these are appropriate in regard to the shellacking the Democrats took in Massachusetts…and figuratively across the nation…in Tuesday’s special Senatorial election in the Bay State. . . . more
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Job Challenge
December’s overall employment report can be placed in the “disappointing” pile, with most of the components coming up short. Still, there were additional signs that consistent, if not robust, U.S. job creation is expected sooner rather than later. . . . more
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Global ABCs
This is the companion piece to Domestic ABCs of December 16, 2009... Anxiety—even as economic performance around the globe continues to improve, a high level of individual and corporate anxiety remains. We have all been through the “ringer” during the past 24 months... . . . more
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Domestic ABCs
Your guide to understanding today’s economy and financial markets. This week’s Tea Leaf is our semi-annual alphabetic view of the U.S. economy. Global ABCs will soon follow...
. . . more
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Direction Right
The American economy lost an estimated 11,000 net jobs during November, many fewer than the 125,000 loss expected by financial market players and economists. More impressive was the sharp downward (or is it upward?) revision to job losses of the two prior months. . . . more
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Dollar Rambling
One of the first critical tests a potential candidate to serve as Secretary of the U.S. Treasury must pass is the ability to say “the U.S. supports a strong dollar” with a straight face….no smirking…no snickering…no giggles. The current U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner serving under President Obama, as well as his predecessor Henry Paulson who served under George Bush, both have/had such an ability, as did most former occupants of this powerful position. . . . more
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Rebound
The consensus view of forecasting economists at mid-year 2009 was that the global economy, at that time in its first overall recession since just after WWII, would not likely emerge from recession until perhaps 2010’s second quarter . . . more
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